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1) While we are seemingly on a perpetual treadmill of production freeze talk, it is refreshing to hear that new OPEC member Indonesia is comfortable with crude prices between $40 – $50. Its economy remains in fairly rude health, with the IMF projecting its economy will grow at just shy of 5 percent this year, and just above that next year.

It is the only cartel member in Asia-Pacific, exporting $6.4 billion of petroleum last year, and is the largest economy in South East Asia. The leading recipients of its oil this year are China, Japan, U.S., Australia and Thailand:

2) Last week we discussed how oil imports into northern China have been slowing due to lesser demand from China’s independent refiners, or ‘teapots’. The chart below helps to illustrate this point: the run rates for these teapots have been dropping in recent months, and are now running at their slowest pace in more than seven months.

While part of this slowing is due to congestion and a lack of storage capacity, lower profits and higher fuel-quality standards may also crimp activity going forward. An immediate threat comes in the form of a tax crackdown, as authorities look to crack down on teapot refiners evading taxes or falsifying documents. As regulations are set to increase, processing is expected to slow further.

3) The oil market is perpetually fascinating, given there are so many different ways it...